EDE: Extinction Date Estimation from Sighting Records
Estimates the historic date of extinction of a species from a
time-ordered record of sighting events. Given a table of sighting counts
per year, computes extinction date estimators from the sighting-record
literature: optimal linear estimation and its Weibull extreme-value
persistence test (Roberts & Solow, 2003; Solow, 2005), constant-rate and
declining-rate persistence tests (Solow, 1993), a sighting-rate persistence
test comparable across records with different observation periods
(McInerny, Roberts, Davy & Cribb, 2006), a classical confidence interval
on the end of a temporal range (Strauss & Sadler, 1989), a
truncation-point extrapolation (Robson & Whitlock, 1964), and a
combinatorial persistence test based on inclusion-exclusion over
sighting-gap occupancy (Burgman, Grimson & Ferson, 1995). Also implements
a nonparametric endpoint test (Solow & Roberts, 2003), a sighting-interval
trend index (Jarić & Ebenhard, 2010), and reliability-adjusted inference
for uncertain records (Jarić & Roberts, 2014). Every estimator is built on
a validated input object and returns a common result class with, where
defined, a point estimate, a confidence interval, or a full p-value curve.
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These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.
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