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Solves the horse race problem in both directions. Infers relative ability from win probabilities (or betting dividends) for contests whose entrants share a common performance distribution, with dead heats handled exactly, by the lattice fixed-point algorithm of Cotton (2021) <doi:10.1137/19M1276261>. Also computes all N win probabilities of a factor-structured Gaussian race (multinomial probit with low-rank-plus-diagonal covariance) in one shared-lattice pass of O(Q*N*L) operations, and inverts observed shares to abilities by a damped Newton method with analytic slopes. A dependency-free base-R port of the reference python package 'winning'. Performances are times: lowest wins.
| Version: | 0.3.0 |
| Suggests: | mvtnorm, testthat (≥ 3.0.0) |
| Published: | 2026-09-09 |
| DOI: | 10.32614/CRAN.package.winning |
| Author: | Peter Cotton [aut, cre] |
| Maintainer: | Peter Cotton <peter.cotton at microprediction.com> |
| BugReports: | https://github.com/microprediction/winning/issues |
| License: | MIT + file LICENSE |
| URL: | https://github.com/microprediction/winning |
| NeedsCompilation: | no |
| Materials: | README |
| CRAN checks: | winning results |
| Reference manual: | winning.html , winning.pdf |
| Package source: | winning_0.3.0.tar.gz |
| Windows binaries: | r-devel: winning_0.3.0.zip, r-release: not available, r-oldrel: winning_0.3.0.zip |
| macOS binaries: | r-release (arm64): not available, r-oldrel (arm64): winning_0.3.0.tgz, r-release (x86_64): winning_0.3.0.tgz, r-oldrel (x86_64): winning_0.3.0.tgz |
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These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.