Introduction to R Package CoRpower

Set-up and notation | Without replacement sampling

• Assume a randomized vaccine vs. placebo/control vaccine efficacy trial

• Participants are followed for the first occurrence of the primary clinical study endpoint, with follow-up through time \(\tau_{\mathrm{max}}\)

• \(T\) is the time from randomization (or enrollment) to the primary endpoint

• \(Y = I(T \leq \tau_{\mathrm{max}})\) is the binary outcome of interest

• \(\Delta\) is the indicator that \(Y\) is observed; i.e., \(\Delta = 0\) if the participants drops out before \(\tau_{\mathrm{max}}\) and before experiencing the primary endpoint and \(\Delta = 1\) otherwise

• \(N_1\) is the number of vaccine recipients observed or expected to be at risk at \(\tau\) (typically, \(\tau\) is the biomarker sampling timepoint)

• \(n_{cases,1}\) (\(n_{controls,1}\)) is the number of observed or expected cases (controls) in vaccine recipients between \(\tau\) and \(\tau_{\mathrm{max}}\), where cases have \(\Delta Y = 1\) and controls have \(\Delta (1-Y) = 1\)

  • Note that both cases and controls have \(\Delta = 1\)
  • \(n_{cases,1} + n_{controls,1} \leq N_1\)

• \(n^S_{cases,1}\) (\(n^S_{controls,1}\)) is the number of observed cases (controls) in vaccine recipients between \(\tau\) and \(\tau_{\mathrm{max}}\) with measured biomarker response \(S(1)\) (or \(S^{\ast}(1)\))

• If calculations done at design stage, then \(N_1\), \(n_{cases,1}\), \(n_{controls,1}\), \(n^S_{cases,1}\), and \(n^S_{controls,1}\) are expected counts

Algorithm for trichotomous biomarker \(S(1)\) | Without replacement sampling

1. Specify true overall \(VE\) between \(\tau\) and \(\tau_{\mathrm{max}}\)
   • Protocol-specified design alternative or \(\widehat{VE}\)
2. Specify \(risk_0 = P(Y=1 \mid Z=0, Y^{\tau}=0)\) where \(Y^{\tau}=I(T \leq \tau)\)
   • Protocol-specified placebo-group endpoint rate or \(\widehat{risk}_0\)
3. Select a grid of \(VE^{lat}_0\) values
   • E.g., ranging from \(VE\) (\(H_0\)) to 0 (maximal \(H_1\) not allowing harm by vaccination)
4. Select a grid of \(VE^{lat}_1 \geq VE^{lat}_0\) values
   • E.g., \(VE^{lat}_1 = VE\)
5. Specify \(P^{lat}_0\) and \(P^{lat}_2\), then \(P^{lat}_1 = 1-P^{lat}_0-P^{lat}_2\)
   • Assuming \(risk^{lat}_0(x) = risk_0\), \[VE = VE^{lat}_0 P^{lat}_0 + VE^{lat}_1 P^{lat}_1 + VE^{lat}_2 P^{lat}_2\] yields \(VE^{lat}_2\)
   • If \(VE^{lat}_0\) varies from \(VE\) to 0, then \(VE^{lat}_2\) varies from VE to \(VE\, (P^{lat}_0 + P^{lat}_2)/P^{lat}_2\)
6. Specify \(P_0\) and \(P_2\), then \(P_1 = 1-P_0-P_2\)
   • E.g., \(P_0 = P^{lat}_0\) and \(P_2 = P^{lat}_2\)
7. Approach 1: Specify two of the three \((Sens, FP^0, FP^1)\) and two of the three \((Spec, FN^2, FN^1)\)
   • E.g., specify \(Sens\) and \(Spec\) and \(FP^0 = FN^2 = 0\)
   Approach 2: Specify \(\sigma^2_{obs}\) and \(\rho = \sigma^2_{tr} / \sigma^2_{obs}\) and determine \((Sens, Spec, FP^0, FP^1, FN^1, FN^2)\) (see below)

   • Typically, \(\sigma^2_{obs} = 1\)

   • Calculation of \((Sens, Spec, FP^0, FP^1, FN^1, FN^2)\)

     1. Assuming the classical measurement error model, where \(X^{\ast} \sim \mathsf{N}(0,\rho\sigma^2_{obs})\), solve \[P^{lat}_0 = P(X^{\ast} \leq \theta_0) \quad \textrm{and} \quad P^{lat}_2 = P(X^{\ast} > \theta_2)\] for \(\theta_0\) and \(\theta_2\)

     2. Generate \(B\) realizations of \(X^{\ast}\) and \(S^{\ast} = X^{\ast} + e\), where \(e \sim \mathsf{N}(0,(1-\rho)\sigma^2_{obs})\), and \(X^{\ast}\) independent of \(e\)

        • \(B = 20,000\) by default

     3. Using \(\theta_0\) and \(\theta_2\) from the first step, define \[ \begin{align} Spec(\phi_0) &= P(S^{\ast} \leq \phi_0 \mid X^{\ast} \leq \theta_0)\\ FN^1(\phi_0) &= P(S^{\ast} \leq \phi_0 \mid X^{\ast} \in (\theta_0,\theta_2])\\ FN^2(\phi_0) &= P(S^{\ast} \leq \phi_0 \mid X^{\ast} > \theta_2)\\ Sens(\phi_2) &= P(S^{\ast} > \phi_2 \mid X^{\ast} > \theta_2)\\ FP^1(\phi_2) &= P(S^{\ast} > \phi_2 \mid X^{\ast} \in (\theta_0,\theta_2])\\ FP^0(\phi_2) &= P(S^{\ast} > \phi_2 \mid X^{\ast} \leq \theta_0) \end{align} \]

        Estimate \(Spec(\phi_0)\) by \[\widehat{Spec}(\phi_0) = \frac{\#\{S^{\ast}_b \leq \phi_0, X^{\ast}_b \leq \theta_0\}}{\#\{X^{\ast}_b \leq \theta_0\}}\,\] etc.

     4. Find \(\phi_0 = \phi^{\ast}_0\) and \(\phi_2 = \phi^{\ast}_2\) that numerically solve \[ \begin{align} P_0 &= \widehat{Spec}(\phi_0)P^{lat}_0 + \widehat{FN}^1(\phi_0)P^{lat}_1 + \widehat{FN}^2(\phi_0)P^{lat}_2\\ P_2 &= \widehat{Sens}(\phi_2)P^{lat}_2 + \widehat{FP}^1(\phi_2)P^{lat}_1 + \widehat{FP}^0(\phi_2)P^{lat}_0 \end{align} \] and compute \[ Spec = \widehat{Spec}(\phi^{\ast}_0),\; Sens = \widehat{Sens}(\phi^{\ast}_2),\; \textrm{etc.} \]

   • In Approach 2, plot \[ RR_t \quad \textrm{vs.} \quad \frac{RR^{lat}_2}{RR^{lat}_0}, \] where \(RR_t\) is the CoR effect size defined as \[ RR_t := \frac{risk_1(2)}{risk_1(0)} = \frac{\sum_{x=0}^2 RR^{lat}_x P(X=x|S(1)=2)}{\sum_{x=0}^2 RR^{lat}_x P(X=x|S(1)=0)} \]

   • If \(\rho < 1\), then \(RR_t\) is closer to 1 than \(RR^{lat}_2\big/ RR^{lat}_0\)

     • Note that, under the assumption of homogeneous risk in the placebo group, i.e., \(risk_0^{lat}(x) = risk_0\), \(x=0,1,2\), the relative risk ratio \(RR^{lat}_2\big/ RR^{lat}_0 = risk_1^{lat}(2) \big/ risk_1^{lat}(0)\)

     • Consequently, \(risk_1(2) \big/ risk_1(0) > risk_1^{lat}(2) \big/ risk_1^{lat}(0)\) because, if \(\rho < 1\), then \(risk_1(2) > risk_1^{lat}(2)\) and \(risk_1(0) < risk_1^{lat}(0)\)

8. Simulate \(M\) data sets under the true parameter values:
   Full data
   1. \(N_x = (n_{controls,1} + n_{cases,1}) P^{lat}_x\)
   2. \(\left(n_{cases,1}(0),n_{cases,1}(1),n_{cases,1}(2)\right) \sim \mathsf{Mult}(n_{cases,1},(p_0,p_1,p_2))\), where \(p_k=P(X=k|Y=1,Y^{\tau}=0,Z=1)\)
   3. For each of the \(N_x\) subjects, generate \(S_i(1)\) by a draw from \(\mathsf{Mult}(1,(p_0,p_1,p_2))\), where \(p_k=P(S(1)=k|X=x)\)
   Observed data
   4. Sample without replacement \(n^S_{cases,1}\) and \(n^S_{controls,1} = K n^S_{cases,1}\) controls with measured \(S(1)\) \((R=1)\), i.e., the control:case ratio is not fixed within subgroup \(X=x\)
9. For each observed data set, compute the 1-sided one-degree-of-freedom Wald test statistic for \(H_0 \Leftrightarrow \{\widetilde{H}_0: \beta_S(1) \geq 0\}\) from IPW logistic regression model that accounts for biomarker sampling design (function tps in R package osDesign)
   • Alternatively, use the generalized two-degree-of-freedom Wald test
10. Compute power as proportion of data sets with 1-sided Wald test \(p \leq \alpha/2\) for specified \(\alpha\)
11. Repeat power calculation varying control:case ratio, \(n_{cases,1}\), \(n^S_{cases,1}\), \((P^{lat}_0, P^{lat}_2, P_0, P_2)\), \((Sens, Spec)\), \(\rho\)

Illustration: hypothetical randomized placebo-controlled VE trial

Illustration: calculation of input parameters with computeN()

library(CoRpower)
computeN(Nrand = 4100,          # participants randomized to vaccine arm
         tau = 3.5,             # biomarker sampling timepoint
         taumax = 24,           # end of follow-up
         VEtauToTaumax = 0.75,  # VE between 'tau' and 'taumax'
         VE0toTau = 0.75/2,     # VE between 0 and 'tau'
         risk0 = 0.034,         # placebo-group endpoint risk between 'tau' and 'taumax'
         dropoutRisk = 0.1,     # dropout risk between 0 and 'taumax'
         propCasesWithS = 1)    # proportion of observed cases with measured S(1)

## $N
## [1] 4023
## 
## $nCases
## [1] 33
## 
## $nControls
## [1] 3653
## 
## $nCasesWithS
## [1] 33

Illustration: CoRpower for trichotomous \(\, S(1)\) | Without replacement sampling

Approach 1 \((Sens, Spec, FP^0, FN^2\) specified\()\)

• Scenario 1: vary control:case ratio
• Scenario 2: vary \(Sens\), \(Spec\)
• Scenario 3: vary \(P_0^{lat}\), \(P_2^{lat}\), \(P_0\), \(P_2\)

Approach 2 \((\sigma^2_{obs}\) and \(\rho\) specified\()\)

• Scenario 4: vary \(\rho\)
• Scenario 5: vary \(P_0^{lat}\), \(P_2^{lat}\), \(P_0\), \(P_2\)
• Scenario 6: vary \(n_{cases,1}\)

Scenario 1: vary control:case ratio (Approach 1) | Trichotomous \(S(1)\), without replacement sampling

pwr <- computePower(nCasesTx = 32,                 
                    nControlsTx = 3654,            
                    nCasesTxWithS = 32,           
                    controlCaseRatio = c(5, 3, 1), # n^S_controls : n^S_cases ratio         
                    VEoverall = 0.75,             # overall VE
                    risk0 = 0.034,                # placebo-group endpoint risk from tau - taumax
                    VElat0 = seq(0, VEoverall, len=100), # grid of VE (V/P) among lower protected
                    VElat1 = rep(VEoverall, 100), # grid of VE (V/P) among medium protected
                    Plat0 = 0.2,                  # prevalence of lower protected
                    Plat2 = 0.6,                  # prevalence of higher protected
                    P0 = 0.2,                     # probability of low biomarker response
                    P2 = 0.6,                     # probability of high biomarker response
                    sens = 0.8, spec = 0.8, FP0 = 0, FN2 = 0,
                    M = 1000,                     # number of simulated clinical trials
                    alpha = 0.05,                 # two-sided Wald test Type 1 error rate
                    biomType = "trichotomous")    # "continuous" by default

plotPowerTri(outComputePower = pwr,  # 'computePower' output list of lists
             legendText = paste0("Control:Case = ", c("5:1", "3:1", "1:1")))

computePower(..., saveDir = "myDir", saveFile = c("myFile1.RData", "myFile2.RData", "myFile3.RData"))
plotPowerTri(outComputePower = c("myFile1.RData", "myFile2.RData", "myFile3.RData"), # 'computePower' output files
             outDir = rep("~/myDir", 3),                           # path to each myFilex.RData
             legendText = paste0("Control:Case = ", c("5:1", "3:1", "1:1")))

Scenario 2: vary \(\, Sens\) and \(\, Spec\) (Approach 1) | Trichotomous \(\, S(1)\), without replacement sampling

pwr <- computePower(nCasesTx = 32,                 
                    nControlsTx = 3654,            
                    nCasesTxWithS = 32,           
                    controlCaseRatio = 5,         # n^S_controls : n^S_cases ratio
                    VEoverall = 0.75,             # overall VE
                    risk0 = 0.034,                # placebo-group endpoint risk from tau - taumax
                    VElat0 = seq(0, VEoverall, len=100), # grid of VE (V/P) among lower protected
                    VElat1 = rep(VEoverall, 100), # grid of VE (V/P) among medium protected
                    Plat0 = 0.2,                  # prevalence of lower protected
                    Plat2 = 0.6,                  # prevalence of higher protected
                    P0 = 0.2,                     # probability of low biomarker response
                    P2 = 0.6,                     # probability of high biomarker response
                    sens = c(1, 0.9, 0.8, 0.7), spec = c(1, 0.9, 0.8, 0.7), 
                    FP0 = c(0, 0, 0, 0), FN2 = c(0, 0, 0, 0),
                    M = 1000,                     # number of simulated clinical trials
                    alpha = 0.05,                 # two-sided Wald test Type 1 error rate
                    biomType = "trichotomous")    # "continuous" by default

plotPowerTri(outComputePower = pwr,    
             legendText = paste0("Sens = Spec = ", c(1, 0.9, 0.8, 0.7)))

Scenario 3: vary \(\, P^{lat}_0, P^{lat}_2, P_0, P_2\) (Approach 1) | Trichotomous \(\, S(1)\), without replacement sampling

pwr <- computePower(nCasesTx = 32,                 
                    nControlsTx = 3654,            
                    nCasesTxWithS = 32,           
                    controlCaseRatio = 5,         # n^S_controls : n^S_cases ratio
                    VEoverall = 0.75,             # overall VE
                    risk0 = 0.034,                # placebo-group endpoint risk from tau - taumax
                    VElat0 = seq(0, VEoverall, len=100), # grid of VE (V/P) among lower protected
                    VElat1 = rep(VEoverall, 100), # grid of VE (V/P) among medium protected
                    Plat0 = c(0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2),          
                    Plat2 = c(0.15, 0.3, 0.45, 0.6),          
                    P0 = c(0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2),            
                    P2 = c(0.15, 0.3, 0.45, 0.6),          
                    sens = 0.8, spec = 0.8, FP0 = 0, FN2 = 0,
                    M = 1000,                     # number of simulated clinical trials
                    alpha = 0.05,                 # two-sided Wald test Type 1 error rate
                    biomType = "trichotomous")    # "continuous" by default

plotPowerTri(outComputePower = pwr, 
             legendText = c("Plat0=0.05, Plat2=0.15", 
                            "Plat0=0.1, Plat2=0.3", 
                            "Plat0=0.15, Plat2=0.45", 
                            "Plat0=0.2, Plat2=0.6"))

Scenario 4: vary \(\, \rho\) (Approach 2) | Trichotomous \(\, S(1)\), without replacement sampling

pwr <- computePower(nCasesTx = 32,                 
                    nControlsTx = 3654,            
                    nCasesTxWithS = 32,           
                    controlCaseRatio = 5,         # n^S_controls : n^S_cases ratio
                    VEoverall = 0.75,             # overall VE
                    risk0 = 0.034,                # placebo-group endpoint risk from tau - taumax 
                    VElat0 = seq(0, VEoverall, len=100), # grid of VE (V/P) among lower protected
                    VElat1 = rep(VEoverall, 100), # grid of VE (V/P) among medium protected
                    Plat0 = 0.2,                  # prevalence of lower protected
                    Plat2 = 0.6,                  # prevalence of higher protected
                    P0 = 0.2,                     # probability of low biomarker response
                    P2 = 0.6,                     # probability of high biomarker response
                    sigma2obs = 1,                # variance of observed biomarker S(1)
                    rho = c(1, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5),    # protection-relevant fraction of variance of S(1)
                    M = 1000,                     # number of simulated clinical trials
                    alpha = 0.05,                 # two-sided Wald test Type 1 error rate
                    biomType = "trichotomous")    # "continuous" by default

plotPowerTri(outComputePower = pwr,   
             legendText = paste0("rho = ", c(1, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5)))

plotRRgradVE(outComputePower = pwr,  # 'computePower' output list of lists
             legendText = paste0("rho = ", c(1, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5)))

computePower(..., saveDir = "myDir", saveFile = "myFile.RData")
plotRRgradVE(outComputePower = paste0("myFile_rho_", c(1, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5), ".RData"),    # files with 'computePower' output
             outDir = "~/myDir",            # path to myFile.RData
             legendText = paste0("rho = ", c(1, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5)))

plotROCcurveTri(Plat0 = 0.2, 
                Plat2 = c(0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5), 
                P0 = seq(0.90, 0.10, len=25), 
                P2 = seq(0.10, 0.90, len=25), 
                rho = c(1, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5))

Scenario 5: vary \(\, P^{lat}_0, P_0, P^{lat}_2, P_2\) (Approach 2) | Trichotomous \(\, S(1)\), without replacement sampling

pwr <- computePower(nCasesTx = 32,                 
                    nControlsTx = 3654,            
                    nCasesTxWithS = 32,           
                    controlCaseRatio = 5,         # n^S_controls : n^S_cases ratio
                    VEoverall = 0.75,             # overall VE
                    risk0 = 0.034,                # placebo-group endpoint risk from tau - taumax 
                    VElat0 = seq(0, VEoverall, len=100), # grid of VE (V/P) among lower protected
                    VElat1 = rep(VEoverall, 100), # grid of VE (V/P) among medium protected
                    Plat0 = c(0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2),          
                    Plat2 = c(0.15, 0.3, 0.45, 0.6),          
                    P0 = c(0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2),            
                    P2 = c(0.15, 0.3, 0.45, 0.6), 
                    sigma2obs = 1,                # variance of observed biomarker S(1)
                    rho = 0.9,                    # protection-relevant fraction of variance of S(1)
                    M = 1000,                     # number of simulated clinical trials
                    alpha = 0.05,                 # two-sided Wald test Type 1 error rate
                    biomType = "trichotomous")    # "continuous" by default

plotPowerTri(outComputePower = pwr,  
             legendText = c("Plat0=0.05, Plat2=0.15", 
                            "Plat0=0.1, Plat2=0.3", 
                            "Plat0=0.15, Plat2=0.45", 
                            "Plat0=0.2, Plat2=0.6"))

Scenario 6: vary \(\, n_{cases,1}\) (Approach 2) | Trichotomous \(\, S(1)\), without replacement sampling

pwr <- computePower(nCasesTx = c(25, 32, 35, 40),             
                    nControlsTx = c(3661, 3654, 3651, 3646),  
                    nCasesTxWithS = c(25, 32, 35, 40),       
                    controlCaseRatio = 5,         # n^S_controls : n^S_cases ratio
                    VEoverall = 0.75,             # overall VE
                    risk0 = 0.034,                # placebo-group endpoint risk fom tau - taumax
                    VElat0 = seq(0, VEoverall, len=100), # grid of VE (V/P) among lower protected
                    VElat1 = rep(VEoverall, 100), # grid of VE (V/P) among medium protected
                    Plat0 = 0.2,                  # prevalence of lower protected
                    Plat2 = 0.6,                  # prevalence of higher protected
                    P0 = 0.2,                     # probability of low biomarker response
                    P2 = 0.6,                     # probability of high biomarker response
                    sigma2obs = 1,                # variance of observed biomarker S(1)
                    rho = 0.9,                    # protection-relevant fraction of variance of S(1)
                    M = 1000,                     # number of simulated clinical trials
                    alpha = 0.05,                 # two-sided Wald test Type 1 error rate
                    biomType = "trichotomous")    # "continuous" by default

plotPowerTri(outComputePower = pwr,   
             legendText = paste0("nCasesTx = ", c(25, 32, 35, 40)))

Illustration: CoRpower for binary \(\, S(1)\) | Without replacement sampling

Achieved by selecting \(P_0^{lat}\), \(P_2^{lat}\), \(P_0\), \(P_2\) such that \[ \begin{align} P_0^{lat} + P_2^{lat} &= 1\\ P_0 + P_2 &= 1 \end{align} \]

Approach 2 \((\sigma^2_{obs}\) and \(\rho\) specified\()\)

• Scenario 7: vary \(n_{cases,1}\)

Scenario 7: vary \(\, n_{cases,1}\) (Approach 2) | Binary \(\, S(1)\), without replacement sampling

pwr <- computePower(nCasesTx = c(25, 32, 35, 40),             
                    nControlsTx = c(3661, 3654, 3651, 3646),  
                    nCasesTxWithS = c(25, 32, 35, 40),       
                    controlCaseRatio = 5,         # n^S_controls : n^S_cases ratio
                    VEoverall = 0.75,             # overall VE
                    risk0 = 0.034,                # placebo-group endpoint risk from tau - taumax
                    VElat0 = seq(0, VEoverall, len=100), # grid of VE (V/P) among lower protected
                    VElat1 = rep(VEoverall, 100), # grid of VE (V/P) among medium protected
                    Plat0 = 0.2,                  # prevalence of lower protected
                    Plat2 = 0.8,                  # prevalence of higher protected
                    P0 = 0.2,                     # probability of low biomarker response
                    P2 = 0.8,                     # probability of high biomarker response
                    sigma2obs = 1,                # variance of observed biomarker S(1)
                    rho = 0.9,                    # protection-relevant fraction of variance of S(1)
                    M = 1000,                     # number of simulated clinical trials
                    alpha = 0.05,                 # two-sided Wald test Type 1 error rate
                    biomType = "binary")          # "continuous" by default

plotPowerTri(outComputePower = pwr,   
             legendText = paste0("nCasesTx = ", c(25, 32, 35, 40)))

Algorithm for continuous biomarker \(\, S^{\ast}(1)\) | Without replacement sampling

1. Specify overall \(VE\) between \(\tau\) and \(\tau_{\mathrm{max}}\)
   • Protocol-specified design alternative or \(\widehat{VE}\)
2. Specify \(risk_0\)
   • Protocol-specified placebo-group endpoint rate or \(\widehat{risk}_0\)
3. Specify \(P^{lat}_{lowestVE}\), \(\rho\), and a grid of \(VE_{lowest}\) values (e.g., ranging from \(VE\) to 0)
   • Fixed \((VE, risk_0, P^{lat}_{lowestVE}, VE_{lowest}, \rho)\) and \[ \begin{align} risk^{lat}_1(x^{\ast}) &= (1 - VE_{lowest}) risk_0,\quad x^{\ast} \leq \nu\\ \mathop{\mathrm{logit}}\{risk^{lat}_1(x^{\ast})\} &= \alpha^{lat}+\beta^{lat}x^{\ast},\quad x^{\ast} \geq \nu\\ VE &= 1 - \frac{\int risk^{lat}_1(x^{\ast})\phi(x^{\ast}/\sqrt{\rho} \sigma_{obs})\mathop{\mathrm{d}}\!x^{\ast}}{risk_0} \end{align} \] yield \(\alpha^{lat}\) and \(\beta^{lat}\)
   • Plot \(VE^{lat}_{x^{\ast}}\) vs. \(x^{\ast}\) and calculate the pertaining CoR effect size \(\exp(\beta^{lat})\) for each level of \(VE_{lowest}\)
4. Simulate \(M\) data sets under the true parameter values:
   Full data
   1. Sample \(X^{\ast}\) for \(n_{cases,1}\) cases from \(f_{X^{\ast}}(x^{\ast}|Y=1,Y^{\tau}=0,Z=1)\) using Bayes rule
   2. Sample \(X^{\ast}\) for \(n_{controls,1}\) controls from \(f_{X^{\ast}}(x^{\ast}|Y=0,Y^{\tau}=0,Z=1)\) using Bayes rule
      - How? Use a fine grid of \(\widetilde{x}^{\ast}\) values and then
      \(\;\;\)sample(\(\widetilde{x}^{\ast}\), prob=\(f_{X^{\ast}}(\widetilde{x}^{\ast}|Y=\cdot,Y^{\tau}=0,Z=1)\), replace=TRUE)
   3. Sample \(S^{\ast}(1)\) following \(S^{\ast}(1) = X^{\ast} + e\)
   Observed data
   4. Sample without replacement \(n^S_{cases,1}\) and \(n^S_{controls,1} = K n^S_{cases,1}\) controls with measured \(S^{\ast}(1)\) \((R=1)\)
5. For each observed data set, compute the 1-sided one-degree-of-freedom Wald test statistic for \(H_0 \Leftrightarrow \{\widetilde{H}_0: \beta_{S^{\ast}(1)} \geq 0\}\) from IPW logistic regression model that accounts for biomarker sampling design (function tps in R package osDesign)
6. Compute power as proportion of data sets with 1-sided Wald test \(p \leq \alpha/2\) for specified \(\alpha\)
7. Repeat power calculation varying control:case ratio, \(n_{cases,1}\), \(n^S_{cases,1}\), \(P^{lat}_{lowestVE}\), \(\rho\)

Illustration: CoRpower for continuous \(\, S^{\ast}(1)\) | Without replacement sampling

• Scenario 8: vary \(\rho\)
• Scenario 9: vary \(P_{lowestVE}^{lat}\)

Scenario 8: vary \(\, \rho\) | Continuous \(\, S^{\ast}(1)\), without replacement sampling

pwr <- computePower(nCasesTx = 32,             
                    nControlsTx = 3654,         
                    nCasesTxWithS = 32,         
                    controlCaseRatio = 5,        # n^S_controls : n^S_cases ratio
                    VEoverall = 0.75,            # overall VE
                    risk0 = 0.034,               # placebo-group endpoint risk from tau - taumax
                    PlatVElowest = 0.2,          # prevalence of VE_lowest
                    VElowest = seq(0, VEoverall, len=100), # lowest VE for true biomarker X*<=nu
                    sigma2obs = 1,               # variance of observed biomarker S
                    rho = c(1, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5)    # protection-relevant fraction of variance of S
                    M = 1000,                    # number of simulated clinical trials
                    alpha = 0.05,                # two-sided Wald test Type 1 error rate
                    biomType = "continuous")     # "continuous" by default

plotPowerCont(outComputePower = pwr,          # output list of lists from 'computePower'
              legendText = paste0("rho = ", c(1, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5)))

computePower(..., saveDir = "myDir", saveFile = "myFile.RData")
plotPowerCont(outComputePower = paste0("myFile_rho_", c(1, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5), ".RData"),     # files with 'computePower' output
              outDir = "~/myDir",             # path to myFile.RData
              legendText = paste0("rho = ", c(1, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5)))

plotVElatCont(outComputePower = pwr)  

computePower(..., saveDir = "myDir", saveFile = "myFile.RData")
plotVElatCont(outComputePower = "myFile.RData",   
              outDir = "~/myDir")          

Scenario 9: vary \(\, P_{lowestVE}^{lat}\) | Continuous \(\, S^{\ast}(1)\), without replacement sampling

pwr <- computePower(nCasesTx = 32,               
                    nControlsTx = 3654,         
                    nCasesTxWithS = 32,         
                    controlCaseRatio = 5,        # n^S_controls : n^S_cases ratio
                    VEoverall = 0.75,            # overall VE
                    risk0 = 0.034,               # placebo-group endpoint risk from tau - taumax
                    PlatVElowest = c(0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2),         
                    VElowest = seq(0, VEoverall, len=100), # lowest VE for true biomarker X*<=nu
                    sigma2obs = 1,               # variance of observed biomarker S(1)
                    rho = 0.9                    # protection-relevant fraction of variance of S(1)
                    M = 1000,                    # number of simulated clinical trials
                    alpha = 0.05,                # two-sided Wald test Type 1 error rate
                    biomType = "continuous")     # "continuous" by default

plotPowerCont(outComputePower = pwr,          # output list of lists from 'computePower'
              legendText = paste0("PlatVElowest = ", c(0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2)))

Bernoulli / case-cohort sampling of \(\, S(1)\) (or \(\, S^{\ast}(1)\))

• Bernoulli sample at baseline with sampling probability \(p\)
• \(S(1)\) (or \(S^{\ast}(1)\)) measured at \(\tau\) in
  • a subset of the sample with \(Y^{\tau}=0\), and
  • all cases with \(Y^{\tau}=0\)
• Implications:
  • \(n_{cases,1} = n^S_{cases,1}\)
  • design parameter \(n^S_{controls,1}\) replaced by probability \(p\) because \(n^S_{controls,1}\) is a random variable in case-cohort designs

Illustration: CoRpower for trichotomous \(\, S(1)\) and continuous \(\, S^{\ast}(1)\) | Bernoulli sampling

Trichotomous \(S(1)\) (Approach 1)

• Scenario 10: vary \(p\)

Continuous \(S^{\ast}(1)\)

• Scenario 11: vary \(p\)

Scenario 10: vary \(\, p\) (Approach 1) | Trichotomous \(\, S(1)\), Bernoulli sampling

pwr <- computePower(nCasesTx = 32,             
                    nControlsTx = 3654,       
                    nCasesTxWithS = 32,       
                    cohort = TRUE,                # FALSE by default
                    p = c(0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.05),               
                    VEoverall = 0.75,             # overall VE
                    risk0 = 0.034,                # placebo-group endpoint risk from tau - taumax
                    VElat0 = seq(0, VEoverall, len=100), # grid of VE (V/P) among lower protected
                    VElat1 = rep(VEoverall, 100), # grid of VE (V/P) among medium protected
                    Plat0 = 0.2,                  # prevalence of lower protected
                    Plat2 = 0.6,                  # prevalence of higher protected
                    P0 = 0.2,                     # probability of low biomarker response
                    P2 = 0.6,                     # probability of high biomarker response
                    sens = 0.8, spec = 0.8, FP0 = 0, FN2 = 0,
                    M = 1000,                     # number of simulated clinical trials
                    alpha = 0.05,                 # two-sided Wald test Type 1 error rate
                    biomType = "trichotomous")    # "continuous" by default

plotPowerTri(outComputePower = pwr,  # 'computePower' output
             legendText = paste0("Cohort p = ", c(0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.05)))

Scenario 11: vary \(\, p\) | Continuous \(\, S^{\ast}(1)\), Bernoulli sampling

pwr <- computePower(nCasesTx = 32,             
                    nControlsTx = 3654,        
                    nCasesTxWithS = 32,       
                    cohort = TRUE,               # FALSE by default
                    p = c(0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.05),                  
                    VEoverall = 0.75,            # overall VE
                    risk0 = 0.034,               # placebo-group endpoint risk from tau - taumax
                    PlatVElowest = 0.2,          # prevalence of VE_lowest
                    VElowest = seq(0, VEoverall, len=100), # lowest VE for true biomarker X*<=nu
                    sigma2obs = 1,               # variance of observed biomarker S(1)
                    rho = 0.9                    # protection-relevant fraction of variance of S(1)
                    M = 1000,                    # number of simulated clinical trials
                    alpha = 0.05,                # two-sided Wald test Type 1 error rate
                    biomType = "continuous")     # "continuous" by default

plotPowerCont(outComputePower = pwr,  # 'computePower' output
              legendText = paste0("Cohort p = ", c(0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.05)))