| Type: | Package |
| Title: | Translate Odds and Probabilities |
| Version: | 1.0 |
| Description: | Calculates the Kelly criterion (Kelly, J.L. (1956) <doi:10.1002/j.1538-7305.1956.tb03809.x>) for bets given quoted prices, model predictions and commissions. Additionally it contains helper functions to calculate the probabilities for wins and draws in multi-leg games. |
| License: | MIT + file LICENSE |
| Encoding: | UTF-8 |
| LazyData: | true |
| RoxygenNote: | 6.1.1 |
| Suggests: | testthat, knitr, rmarkdown |
| VignetteBuilder: | knitr |
| NeedsCompilation: | no |
| Packaged: | 2019-09-03 21:42:09 UTC; arvid |
| Author: | Arvid Kingl [aut, cre] |
| Maintainer: | Arvid Kingl <akingl2016@gmail.com> |
| Repository: | CRAN |
| Date/Publication: | 2019-09-04 13:50:02 UTC |
Calculates the chance to draw out of n matches
Description
Calculates the chance to draw out of n matches
Usage
chance_to_draw_n_games(p, n)
Arguments
p |
probability of first (or second) player winning match |
n |
number of matches |
Value
The decimal chance for a draw
Examples
chance_to_draw_n_games(0.4, 4) # Draw chance if one player has p=0.4 in four matches
Calculate win chance after multiple matches
Description
Chance of a player winning the majority of n matches. Draws count not as a win
Usage
chance_to_win_n_games(p, n)
Arguments
p |
probability for player to win a single match |
n |
number of total matches playes |
Value
The decimal chance of winning a game
Examples
chance_to_win_n_games(0.55,5) # Chance for player with p=0.55 to win best of 5 matches
Kelly for back bet
Description
Kelly for back bet
Usage
kelly_back_dec(price, p, commision_rate)
Arguments
price |
Price to back in decimal odds |
p |
Probability of event to to materialise |
commision_rate |
Rate of commision charged on WINNINGS |
Value
Kelly optimised fraction of stake relative to bank
Examples
kelly_back_dec(2,0.5,0.05)
The Kelly criterion
Description
The Kelly criterion
Usage
kelly_criterion(p, alpha_w, alpha_l)
Arguments
p |
The objective probability of the event |
alpha_w |
The return multiplier in case of the event happening |
alpha_l |
The return multiplier in case of the event not happening |
Value
The Kelly optimised fraction of the bankroll that should be bet
References
Thorp, Edward O. (1997; revised 1998). The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports Betting, and the Stock Market. http://www.eecs.harvard.edu/cs286r/courses/fall12/papers/Thorpe_KellyCriterion2007.pdf
Examples
kelly_criterion(0.5,1,1)
Kelly for lay bet
Description
Kelly for lay bet
Usage
kelly_lay_dec(price, p, commision_rate)
Arguments
price |
Price at which to lay |
p |
Base probability of event that is being laid |
commision_rate |
Rate of commision charged on WINNINGS |
Value
Kelly optimised fraction of stake relative to bank