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This is a transition release. It is the functionality of the previous CRAN version with the fixes listed below, and it is the last release before 1.0.0 reorganises the package around a different set of functions. Nothing here stops working.
Functions that bvartools 1.0.0 does not have any more
announce themselves. The first time in a session that such a
function is used it emits a message naming its successor, or saying that
it has no replacement. The message is shown once per function per
session and can be switched off with
options(bvartools.transition.messages = FALSE). It is a
message rather than a warning, so it cannot become an error under
options(warn = 2).
Renamed: gen_var to create_bvarmodel,
gen_vec to create_bvecmodel,
bvec_to_bvar to vec_to_var,
kalman_dk to kalman_durbin_koopman_2002,
stochvol_ksc1998 to stochvol_ksc_1998,
stochvol_ocsn2007 to stochvol_ocsn_2007,
stoch_vol moved into stochvol_ksc_1998, and
bvs to post_bvs. Replaced by a different
workflow: draw_posterior, bvarpost and
bvecpost, which become
add_posterior_coefficients alongside
add_posterior_forecasts and
add_posterior_loglik. Removed with no successor:
post_normal_covar_const,
post_normal_covar_tvp, and the whole dynamic factor model
branch – dfm, dfmpost, gen_dfm,
their methods, and the data set bem_dfmdata, which cannot
announce itself.
Methods on the renamed classes bvar, bvec
and bvarlist are silent, because the generic that
dispatches them is unchanged and only the class is renamed, to
bvarmodel, bvecmodel and
modellist. So are the functions that keep their name in
1.0.0 but take the reorganised model object: add_priors,
bvar, bvec, irf,
fevd, inclusion_prior,
minnesota_prior and ssvs_prior. The new
vignette, Moving from bvartools 0.3.0 to 1.0.0, lists all of
it.
Fixed: stochvol_ksc1998 and
stochvol_ocsn2007 failed on an observation far out in the
tails of every mixture component. Both sampled the mixture
indicator from weights formed as densities and normalised by their sum.
Where the log of the squared observation lies far enough below the
log-volatility – about 112 for the seven components of Kim, Shephard and
Chib, about 158 for the ten of Omori, Chib, Shephard and Nakajima –
every density underflows to zero, the row sums to zero, the weights
become NaN, and the sampled indicator runs one past the
last component, ending the call with
Mat::elem(): index out of bounds. The weights are now
formed in logs and shifted by their row maximum before they are
exponentiated, and the indicator is clamped to the components that
exist.
This is algebraically the same calculation, and draws are unchanged
where they were being produced at all: verified bit for bit against the
previous implementation over the us_macrodata series from a
fixed seed. stoch_vol is a wrapper for the first of the two
and inherits the fix.
Fixed: neither function checked the size of
sigma, h_init or
constant. They were indexed on trust, so a vector
of the wrong length was reported as
Mat::elem(): index out of bounds instead of as a statement
about the argument. Each is now checked against the number of columns of
y.
Fixed: irf and fevd produced
reduced form quantities from a structural model. A structural
model keeps its contemporaneous block separately, so its coefficient
draws are the structural A_i and its covariance draws the
covariance of the structural errors. The forecast error, orthogonalised
and generalised recursions want the reduced form. Given the structural
quantities they returned numbers that belong to no model at all, and the
same numbers for all three types, since the structural error covariance
makes the orthogonalisation degenerate. irf with
type of "feir", "oir" or
"gir", and fevd with "oir" or
"gir", now stop on a structural model and say why. The
structural types "sir" and "sgir" are
unchanged, as is every reduced form model.
Fixed: the structural variance decomposition ignored the
variances of the structural shocks. fevd with
type = "sir" used A_0^-1 as the impulse matrix
and A_0^-1 A_0^-1' as the forecast error covariance,
leaving the covariance of the structural errors out of both, so every
structural shock was decomposed as if it had unit variance. Weight moved
to whichever shock loads most heavily in A_0, and since the
shares are normalised they still summed to one, so the output gave
nothing away. On a three variable example whose shock variances stand at
4, 1 and 0.25 the reported shares were 0.21, 0.13 and 0.65 where they
should be 0.74, 0.12 and 0.14. The impulse matrix is now
A_0^-1 chol(Sigma)' and the forecast error covariance
A_0^-1 Sigma A_0^-1'. "sgir" already carried
Sigma and is unchanged, as is every reduced form
type.
Fixed: gen_vec stopped on seasonal terms for
data of frequency one. It warned that no seasonal dummies are
generated and then added them anyway, failing with
object 'seas' not found because the dummies had never been
built. It now does what the warning says. gen_var was never
affected.
Added a test suite, which the package did not have before. It covers the announcements and carries one regression test per fix above.
Carried over from the development version that was never released as 0.2.5. All six survive into 1.0.0 and so announce nothing.
covar_vector_to_matrix.sur_const_to_tvp.Rcpp dependency in DESCRIPTION file to version
1.0.12.post_gamma_state_variance for posterior
simulation of constant error variances of the state equation.post_gamma_measurement_variance for posterior
simulation of constant error variances of the measurement equation..prep_covar_data to
covar_prepare_data and made it visible in R and also
callable from C++.Rcpp to address an issue
with Rcpp::stop.stochvol_ocsn2007 can handle multi-column input.stochvol_ksc1998 can handle multi-column input.post_normal_covar_tvp for posterior simulation of
time varying, lower triangular covariance matrices.post_normal_covar_const for posterior simulation
of constant, lower triangular covariance matrices.roxygen2.kalman_dk callable from C++.stoch_vol to a wrapper for
stochvol_ksc1998.stochvol_ksc1998.stochvol_ocsn2007.bvar.| in C++ sampling functions by
||.bvar and bvec
objects if Gibbs sampler fails..bvecalg..bvecalg and .bvectvpalg with
the storing of posterior draws of beta.predict.bvar, which could not handle only
VARX models with contemporaneous exogenous variables only.bvar and
bvec for visual inspection of posterior draws.bvaralg and bvecalg to make them
more stable for especially large output.draw_posterior to a generic function and added
the corresponding methods for BVAR, BVEC and DFM input.irf and fevd to generic
functions.thin_posterior methods were renamed to
thin and are now methods of coda::thin.irf allows to specify the size of a
shock.ssvs_prior concerning BVEC models.thin_posterior to a generic function and added
methods for BVAR, BVEC and dynamic factor model input.add_prior to a generic function and added
methods for BVAR, BVEC and dynamic factor model input.predict requires to specify an object of class
ts as input for argument exogen.add_priors methods.minnesota_prior and for
add_prior methods.Matrix from “Imports”” in DESCRIPTION,
which caused a note in version 0.0.3.bvarpost for posterior simulation of
BVAR models.bvecpost for posterior simulation of
BVEC models.draw_posterior for estimation of
multiple models.fevd calculates FEVDs based on means of
posterior draws of FEVDs and not based on the means of the coefficient
draws.bvar and summary.bvar can deal
with inclusion parameters.add_priors for easier construction of
prior matrices for multiple models.gen_var and gen_vec can produce multiple
models.predict.bvar to lower
cases.post_normal,
post_normal_sur, post_coint_kls and
post_coint_kls_sur to lower case letters.ssvs from
V_i to v_i.minnesota_prior and added additional
functionaliy.gen_var and gen_vec.us_macrodata.gen_vec.inclusion_prior for the calculation of
inclusion probability priors as used by bvs and
ssvs.summary functions.bvec_to_bvar.bvec_to_bvar.kalman_dk.irf contains a new argument
keep_draws.post_normal,
post_normal_sur, post_coint_kls and
post_coint_kls_sur.bvec.loglik_normal for the calculation of a
multivariate normal log-likelihood.ssvs after the introduction of
function ssvs_prior.ssvs_prior for the calculation of prior matrices
for the SSVS algorithm.minnesota_prior for the calculation of the
Minnesota prior.irf.post_coint_kls_sur the prior matrix g_i
can be time varying.bvar and predict also work only with
deterministic terms, i.e. p can be zero.post_coint_kls and
post_coint_kls_sur.predict allows for p = 1.plot.bvarfevd.These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.