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esback

The esback can be used to backtest forecasts of the expected shortfall risk measure.

Installation

CRAN (stable release)

You can install the released version from CRAN via:

install.packages("esback")

GitHub (development)

The latest version of the package is under development at GitHub. You can install the development version using these commands:

install.packages("devtools")
devtools::install_github("BayerSe/esback", ref = "master")

Implemented Backtests

This package implements the following backtests:

• Expected Shortfall Regression Backtest (Bayer & Dimitriadis, 2020)
• Exceedance Residuals Backtest (McNeil & Frey, 2000)
• Conditional Calibration Backtest (Nolde & Ziegel, 2017)

Examples

# Load the esback package
library(esback)

# Load the data
data(risk_forecasts)

# Plot the returns and expected shortfall forecasts
plot(risk_forecasts$r, xlab = "Observation Number", ylab = "Return and ES forecasts")
lines(risk_forecasts$e, col = "red", lwd = 2)

# Backtest the forecast using the ESR test
esr_backtest(r = risk_forecasts$r, e = risk_forecasts$e, alpha = 0.025, version = 1)

These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.