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Using familiar prospectively
Alex Zwanenburg
2024-09-20
library(familiar)
library(data.table)
set.seed(19)
The summon_familiar function is used to generate models
for a given dataset and provide a broad analysis afterwards. This
creates a number of files. Many of the files resulting from this
analysis can also be used outside of summon_familiar. For
example, models and ensembles can be used prospectively to assess new
datasets. Likewise, data and collection objects can be used to customise
plotting and export to tables.
In this example we will use the birthweight dataset
collected in 1986 at Baystate Medical Center, Springfield,
Massachusetts. This dataset contains birth weight data from 189 newborn
children, some of which have low birth weight (less then 2.5 kg).
Potential risk factors were also collected. We will try to predict the
low birth weight indicator using these risk factors.
We will first randomly split the data into development and validation
datasets:
# Load the birth weight data set
data <- data.table::as.data.table(MASS::birthwt)
# Add sample and batch identifiers.
data[, ":="("sample_id" = .I)]
# Generate training and validation samples
train_samples <- sample(data$sample_id, size = 120, replace = FALSE)
valid_samples <- setdiff(data$sample_id, train_samples)
# Assign batch identifiers.
data[sample_id %in% train_samples, "batch_id" := "development"]
data[sample_id %in% valid_samples, "batch_id" := "validation"]
Next we will prepare the dataset further. We drop the
bwt column as this directly contains the indicator we are
trying to predict. Other columns are encoded as categorical
variables.
# Drop the bwt column.
data[, "bwt" := NULL]
# Encode the low outcome column: we ensure that "low" is now the so-called
# positive class.
data$low <- factor(data$low, levels = c(0, 1), labels = c("normal", "low"))
# Encode race. smoke, ht, and ui columns as categorical variables.
data$race <- factor(data$race, levels = c(1, 2, 3), labels = c("white", "black", "other"))
data$smoke <- factor(data$smoke, levels = c(0, 1), labels = c("no", "yes"))
data$ht <- factor(data$ht, levels = c(0, 1), labels = c("no", "yes"))
data$ui <- factor(data$ui, levels = c(0, 1), labels = c("no", "yes"))
# Rename columns to make them clearer.
data.table::setnames(
x = data,
old = c("low", "age", "lwt", "race", "smoke", "ptl", "ht", "ui", "ftv"),
new = c(
"birth_weight", "age_mother", "weight_mother_before_pregnancy",
"ethnicity", "smoking_during_pregnancy", "previous_premature_labours",
"hypertension_history", "uterine_irritability", "physician_visits_first_trimester"))
Then we call summon_familiar create models for the data
and assess these. We will create an ensemble of five penalised logistic
regression models to predict the low birth weight indicator, based on
bootstraps of the development dataset. You may notice that we here write
to the temporary R directory using the tempdir() function.
In practice you will want to use a different directory, as the temporary
R directory will be deleted once your R session closes. For speed, we
will also only compute point estimates during evaluation (see the
evaluation and explanation vignette for other options).
familiar::summon_familiar(
data = data,
project_dir = tempdir(),
sample_id_column = "sample_id",
batch_id_column = "batch_id",
development_batch_id = "development",
outcome_type = "binomial",
outcome_column = "birth_weight",
experimental_design = "bs(fs+mb,5) + ev",
cluster_method = "none",
fs_method = "none",
learner = "lasso",
parallel = FALSE,
estimation_type = "point")
Using models prospectively
Models generated by familiar are stored in subdirectories of the
trained_models folder:
# Create path to the directory containing the models.
model_directory_path <- file.path(tempdir(), "trained_models", "lasso", "none")
# List files present in the directory.
list.files(model_directory_path)
#> [1] "20240920142110_hyperparameters_lasso_none_2_1.RDS" "20240920142110_hyperparameters_lasso_none_2_2.RDS" "20240920142110_hyperparameters_lasso_none_2_3.RDS" "20240920142110_hyperparameters_lasso_none_2_4.RDS"
#> [5] "20240920142110_hyperparameters_lasso_none_2_5.RDS" "20240920142110_lasso_none_1_1_ensemble.RDS" "20240920142110_lasso_none_2_1_model.RDS" "20240920142110_lasso_none_2_2_model.RDS"
#> [9] "20240920142110_lasso_none_2_3_model.RDS" "20240920142110_lasso_none_2_4_model.RDS" "20240920142110_lasso_none_2_5_model.RDS"
There are 5 models in the directory, which are stored in RDS format
in files ending with *_model.RDS. We can inspect the first
model in the directory.
# Create path to the model.
model_path <- file.path(model_directory_path, list.files(model_directory_path, pattern = "model")[1])
# Load the model.
model <- readRDS(model_path)
model
#> A lasso model (class: familiarGLMnetLasso; v1.5.0) trained using glmnet (v4.1.8) package.
#>
#> --------------- Model details ---------------
#>
#>
#> ---------------------------------------------
#>
#> The following outcome was modelled:
#> birth_weight (binomial), with classes: normal (reference) and low.
#>
#> The model was trained using the following hyperparameters:
#> sign_size: 8
#> family: binomial
#> lambda_min: lambda.min
#> n_folds: 7
#> normalise: FALSE
#> sample_weighting: inverse_number_of_samples
#> sample_weighting_beta: -2
#>
#> Variable importance was determined using the none variable importance method.
#>
#> The following features were used in the model:
#> age_mother (numeric):
#> transformation (yeo_johnson) with λ = 0.296208403268163, shift = 17.3325146310844, and scale = 4.5.
#> normalisation (standardisation_robust) with shift = 0.873767721046453 and scale = 0.741616739776757.
#> weight_mother_before_pregnancy (numeric):
#> transformation (yeo_johnson) with λ = 0.218825298860476, shift = 95.2691199544859, and scale = 13.375.
#> normalisation (standardisation_robust) with shift = 1.27494940207123 and scale = 0.741118821942801.
#> ethnicity (categorical), with levels: white (reference), black and other.
#> smoking_during_pregnancy (categorical), with levels: no (reference) and yes.
#> previous_premature_labours (numeric).
#> hypertension_history (categorical), with levels: no (reference) and yes.
#> uterine_irritability (categorical), with levels: no (reference) and yes.
#> physician_visits_first_trimester (numeric):
#> transformation (yeo_johnson) with λ = -0.345566671398429, shift = 0.0469172895351272, and scale = 0.5.
#> normalisation (standardisation_robust) with shift = 0.47287011277577 and scale = 0.720512804840136.
#>
#> A novelty detector was trained using the model features.
This model can then be used to predict values for a given dataset,
among other things. The predict method used by familiar is
in many ways similar to other predict methods. However,
familiar requires that the newdata argument is set. It does
not store development data with its models to limit model size and
prevent leaking sensitive information. Predictions can be made as
follows:
predict(object = model, newdata = data)
#> predicted_class_probability_normal predicted_class_probability_low predicted_class
#> <num> <num> <fctr>
#> 1: 0.5318764 0.4681236 normal
#> 2: 0.7966370 0.2033630 normal
#> 3: 0.3376807 0.6623193 low
#> 4: 0.3734875 0.6265125 low
#> 5: 0.2533099 0.7466901 low
#> ---
#> 185: 0.4942032 0.5057968 low
#> 186: 0.4053228 0.5946772 low
#> 187: 0.3531756 0.6468244 low
#> 188: 0.4700542 0.5299458 low
#> 189: 0.3818309 0.6181691 low
In addition to default predictions, familiar allows for several
different types of prediction by setting the type argument.
These are:
"novelty": Infers the novelty of an instance using
the novelty detector trained with each model. This can be used to detect
out-of-distribution samples for which the model has to
extrapolate.
"survival_probability": Predict the probability of
surviving until the time specified by time. This is only
possible for some survival models where the predicted values can be
transformed to survival probabilities.
"risk_stratification": Predict the risk group to
which an instance is assigned. This is only possible for survival
models. By default, stratification takes place using threshold values
established during model development. You can manually specify one or
more threshold values by setting the
stratification_threshold argument.
For example, we can predict novelty of the samples as follows:
predict(object = model, newdata = data, type = "novelty")
#> novelty
#> <num>
#> 1: 0.5327427
#> 2: 0.5208425
#> 3: 0.4425998
#> 4: 0.5337354
#> 5: 0.5517906
#> ---
#> 185: 0.5009631
#> 186: 0.5435335
#> 187: 0.4880434
#> 188: 0.5139711
#> 189: 0.4922430
More powerful however, is the ability to perform any of the
evaluation and explanation steps for a new dataset, including new
settings. By default, all evaluation and explanation steps are conducted
using the settings defined when running summon_familiar. In
this case that means that point estimates will be computed.
Let us for example compute and plot model performance AUC-ROC and
accuracy for the model.
plots <- familiar::plot_model_performance(
object = model,
draw = TRUE,
facet_by = "metric",
data = data[batch_id == "validation"],
metric = c("auc", "accuracy"))
#> Warning in (new("nonstandardGenericFunction", .Data = function (object, : Creating a violinplot requires bias-corrected estimates or bootstrap confidence interval estimates instead of point estimates.
You may notice that no plot is produced. This is because the type of
plot violin_plot and the estimation_type
inherited from the model are incompatible. However, nothing prevents us
from changing the estimation type to bootstrap confidence intervals
bci.
# Draw model performance plots with bootstrap confidence intervals.
# familiar_data_names argument specifies the name that appears below the plot.
# The default is rather long.
plots <- familiar::plot_model_performance(
object = model,
draw = TRUE,
facet_by = "metric",
data = data[batch_id == "validation"],
estimation_type = "bci",
metric = c("auc", "accuracy"),
familiar_data_names = "lasso")
Note that we can achieve the same result without explicitly importing
the model. Providing the path to the model as the object
argument suffices:
plots <- familiar::plot_model_performance(
object = model_path,
draw = TRUE,
facet_by = "metric",
data = data[batch_id == "validation"],
estimation_type = "bci",
metric = c("auc", "accuracy"),
familiar_data_names = "lasso")
Using ensembles of models prospectively
The five models created in the example form an ensemble. Instead of
investigating the models separately, we can also evaluate the model
ensemble. Model ensembles generated by familiar are stored in the same
subdirectory of the trained_models folder as their
constituent models:
# List files present in the directory.
list.files(model_directory_path)
#> [1] "20240920142110_hyperparameters_lasso_none_2_1.RDS" "20240920142110_hyperparameters_lasso_none_2_2.RDS" "20240920142110_hyperparameters_lasso_none_2_3.RDS" "20240920142110_hyperparameters_lasso_none_2_4.RDS"
#> [5] "20240920142110_hyperparameters_lasso_none_2_5.RDS" "20240920142110_lasso_none_1_1_ensemble.RDS" "20240920142110_lasso_none_2_1_model.RDS" "20240920142110_lasso_none_2_2_model.RDS"
#> [9] "20240920142110_lasso_none_2_3_model.RDS" "20240920142110_lasso_none_2_4_model.RDS" "20240920142110_lasso_none_2_5_model.RDS"
In this case there is only one ensemble in the directory, which is
stored in RDS format in a file ending with *_ensemble.RDS.
Some alternative experiment designs, e.g. ones involving
cross-validation, can lead to multiple ensembles being formed. We can
inspect the ensemble in the directory.
# Create path to the model.
ensemble_path <- file.path(
model_directory_path,
list.files(model_directory_path, pattern = "ensemble")[1])
# Load the model.
ensemble <- readRDS(ensemble_path)
ensemble
#> An ensemble of 5 lasso models (v1.5.0).
#>
#> The following outcome was modelled:
#> birth_weight (binomial), with classes: normal (reference) and low.
#>
#> Variable importance was determined using the none variable importance method.
#>
#> The following features were used in the ensemble:
#> age_mother (numeric).
#> weight_mother_before_pregnancy (numeric).
#> ethnicity (categorical), with levels: white (reference), black and other.
#> smoking_during_pregnancy (categorical), with levels: no (reference) and yes.
#> previous_premature_labours (numeric).
#> hypertension_history (categorical), with levels: no (reference) and yes.
#> uterine_irritability (categorical), with levels: no (reference) and yes.
#> physician_visits_first_trimester (numeric).
One can use ensembles of models for prediction:
predict(object = ensemble, newdata = data)
#> predicted_class_probability_normal predicted_class_probability_low predicted_class
#> <num> <num> <fctr>
#> 1: 0.5000000 0.5000000 low
#> 2: 0.6235042 0.3764958 normal
#> 3: 0.3881518 0.6118482 low
#> 4: 0.3937610 0.6062390 low
#> 5: 0.3910444 0.6089556 low
#> ---
#> 185: 0.4942032 0.5057968 low
#> 186: 0.4053228 0.5946772 low
#> 187: 0.3609325 0.6390675 low
#> 188: 0.4700542 0.5299458 low
#> 189: 0.4225939 0.5774061 low
Ensembles behave similarly to models during evaluation and
explanation steps:
plots <- familiar::plot_model_performance(
object = ensemble,
draw = TRUE,
facet_by = "metric",
data = data[batch_id == "validation"],
estimation_type = "bci",
metric = c("auc", "accuracy"),
familiar_data_names = "lasso")
There is one important limitation to using ensembles. Normally, when
loading an ensemble, the models are not attached to the ensemble.
Instead, the model_list attribute of the ensemble object
contains a list of paths to the location of the model files at creation.
Thus, if you move these files, the ensemble can no longer find and
attach the models. There are two ways to avoid this issue.
The first way is to use the update_model_dir_path()
method to point the ensemble to the new directory. The second, more
generic way, is to create an ensemble on the fly from the underlying
models. To do so, we supply a list of models, or paths to these models
as the object argument for plot methods and tabular export
methods.
# Generate paths to the model objects.
model_paths <- sapply(
list.files(model_directory_path, pattern = "model"),
function(x) (file.path(model_directory_path, x)))
# Generate plot using an ad-hoc ensemble.
plots <- familiar::plot_model_performance(
object = model_paths,
draw = TRUE,
facet_by = "metric",
data = data[batch_id == "validation"],
estimation_type = "bci",
metric = c("auc", "accuracy"),
familiar_data_names = "lasso"
)
Customising exports and plots
Familiar also produces data and collection objects. Data objects hold
the processed evaluation data derived from a particular data set and are
found in the familiar_data folder.
list.files(file.path(tempdir(), "familiar_data"))
#> [1] "20240920142110_lasso_none_1_1_ensemble_1_1_validation_data.RDS" "20240920142110_lasso_none_1_1_pool_1_1_development_data.RDS" "20240920142110_lasso_none_1_1_pool_1_1_validation_data.RDS"
In our example, we generated three data objects: one for internal
development, one for internal validation, and one for external
validation data. These separate data objects are collected in a
collection object, which is found in the
familiar_collections folder.
list.files(file.path(tempdir(), "familiar_collections"))
#> [1] "pooled_data.RDS"
There is typically only one collection in this location, but more may
exist if summon_familiar is called with
evaluate_top_level_only=FALSE.
Note that data and collection objects are static. We cannot use them
as flexibly as models and ensembles. For example, we cannot assess
different performance metrics using the data stored in familiar data and
collection objects or use these objects to predict outcomes for new
datasets. Below are exceptions to this rule:
export_fs_vimp, export_model_vimp, and
plot_variable_importance and its derived methods
(plot_feature_selection_variable_importance,
plot_feature_selection_occurrence,
plot_model_signature_variable_importance and
plot_model_signature_occurrence) allow for specifying and
altering feature aggregation methods and thresholds.
export_feature_similarity,
export_sample_similarity,
export_feature_expression,
plot_feature_similarity and
plot_sample_clustering methods allow for specifying
clustering arguments, but not the similarity metric to assess distance
between features. Internally, data and collection objects store distance
matrices.
The primary use of data and collection objects is for customising
plotting. For example, the AUC-ROC curves for each species are plotted
using the default palette in familiar, and a custom theme based on
cowplot::theme_cowplot. We can re-create the plot using the
standard R palette, and a different theme to alter its appearance.
collection <- file.path(tempdir(), "familiar_collections", "pooled_data.RDS")
plots <- plot_auc_roc_curve(
object = collection,
ggtheme = ggplot2::theme_dark(),
discrete_palette = "R4",
draw = TRUE)
Exporting collections
Generating plot data can take a non-trivial amount of time. Hence it
may be preferable to have the collection object available so that plots
can be altered and created more quickly. To do so, we can call an export
or plot method with export_collection=TRUE.
# Generate paths to the model objects.
model_paths <- sapply(
list.files(model_directory_path, pattern = "model"),
function(x) (file.path(model_directory_path, x))
)
# Generate plot data (plots + collection) using an ad-hoc ensemble.
plot_data <- familiar::plot_auc_roc_curve(
object = model_paths,
draw = FALSE,
data = data[batch_id == "validation"],
export_collection = TRUE)
The plot_data variable is a list that contains (here)
two items: collection and plot_list. The
collection object can be used to alter plot elements, such as the theme
and palette.
plots <- familiar::plot_auc_roc_curve(
object = plot_data$collection,
ggtheme = ggplot2::theme_dark(),
discrete_palette = "R4",
draw = TRUE)
These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.
