Introduction
Evolution of a dynamic system in time can be represented by ordinary
differential equations (ODE) models consisting a set of state variables
and their derivatives. For example, the state variables can be the
population of different species in an ecological system, the velocities
and locations of particles in a physics system, the concentration of
chemicals in a reactor, or the energy of objects in a heating process.
Usually, an ODE model is defned as a set of differential equations in
the following form
\[
\dot{\mathbf{x}}(t) =
\mathbf{f}(\mathbf{x},\mathbf{u},t|\mathbf{\theta})
\label{eq:generalode}
\] where
\(\mathbf{x}(t)\)
denotes the fully or partially observed states of the system at time
\(t\). The ODE model links the first
derivative, the temporal change, of the states with
\(\mathbf{x}\) itself and other influention
components
\(\mathbf{u}\) through some
function
\(\mathbf{f}\) defined by the
parameter vector
\(\mathbf{\theta}\).
First, each of \(x_{i}(t)\) is
expressed as a linear combination of basis functions \[\begin{equation}
x_{i}(t) = \sum_{i}^{K_{i}} c_{ik} \phi_{ik}(t) =
\mathbf{c}^{\prime}_{i}\mathbf{\phi}_{i}(t)
\end{equation}\] given \(K_{i}\), the number of basis funtions, and
\(\mathbf{\phi}_{i}(t)\), the vector of
basis functions evaluated at a time point t. Normally, the optimal \(K_{i}\) is obtained through a tuning
process. Larger \(K_{i}\) leads to
overfitting and wiggly estimates of ODE solutions, and insufficient
basis functions cannot provide a satisfactory interpolation to capture
the variation in both \(x_{i}(t)\) and
its derivative. For that matter, penalzation approach remedies the
situation by imposing a smoothness constraint during the optimzation
step for obtaining basis coefficients. Hence, a saturated number of
basis functions can be selected without the consequence of overfitting
the observations and left to be a subjective matter. As a result, \(x_{i}(t)\) is determined by its basis
coefficients \(\mathbf{c}_{i}\), and
initial values are immediately available upon the estiamtion result of
\(\mathbf{c}_{i}\).
Let \(y_{ij}\) be the j-th
observation of i-th state variable of the system, where \(j = 1, ..., n_{i}\) and \(i = 1,..., D\). The smoothing method for
obtaining \(\hat{\mathbf{c}_{i}}\) with
\(\hat{x}_{i}(t)\) relies on the random
errors defined as \[\begin{equation*}
e_{ij} = y_{ij} - x_{ij}
\end{equation*}\] Assume \(\mathbf{e}_{i} = (e_{i1},...,e_{in_{i}})\)
has a distribution function denoted as \[\begin{equation*}
g(\mathbf{e}_{i}|\mathbf{\sigma}_{i})
\end{equation*}\] where \(\mathbf{\sigma}_{i}\) represents the
distribution parameters. As a start for establishing the optimization
procedure, a simple objective funtion \(J(\mathbf{c}_{i}|\mathbf{\sigma}_{i})\) is
considered per the smoothing spline routine. That is, the negative
log-likelihood funtion is chosen for non-normal errors, whereas the
least square criterion is naturally suitable for i.i.d. normal error
\(e_{ij} \sim \text{N}(0,\sigma_{i})\).
The summation of individual fitting criterion \(J(\mathbf{c}_{i}|\mathbf{\sigma}_{i})\)
over all defines a composite objective function for all dimensions. As
forementioned, a saturated number of basis functions will be used which
requires a penalty term in the objective function to prevent overfitting
problems. suggests to use a linear differential operator for defining a
roughness penalty and introuduce it to the fitting criterion. Later,
utilizes the roughness penalty in estimating parameters and solutions of
ODE models. Following the same technique, the penalty term is defined
based on the discrepancy between the derivative and the ODE model, i.e.,
\[\begin{equation}
\int (\dot{x}_{i}(t) - f(\mathbf{x},t|\mathbf{\theta}))^{2}dt
\end{equation}\] for each variable \(x_{i}\). Multiplying the penalty with a
smoothing parameter \(\lambda_{i}\) and
combining the summation of individual penalty, the complete objective
function is defined to be \[\begin{equation}
J(\mathbf{c}|\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma}_{i},\mathbf{\lambda}) =
\sum_{i=1}^{D} \big[ g(\mathbf{e}_{i}|\mathbf{\sigma}_{i}) +
\lambda_{i}\int (\dot{x}_{i}(t) -
f(\mathbf{x},t|\mathbf{\theta}))^{2}dt\big]
\label{eq:innerobj}
\end{equation}\] where conditioning on \(\mathbf{\theta}\) and \(\mathbf{\lambda}\) is introduced.
Additionally, the basis coefficients \(\mathbf{c}\) become an implicit functions
of the ODE parameters \(\mathbf{\theta}\) as \(\mathbf{c}(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma};\mathbf{\lambda})\).
\(\mathbf{\lambda}\) are treated as
tuning parameters rather then model parameters as illustated in the
difference of conditioning. Objective function~\(\ref{eq:innerobj}\) needs to be updated in
order to estiamte \(\mathbf{c}\) given
changes in \(\mathbf{\theta}\). To
clearly distinguish two sets of parameters \(\mathbf{c}\) and \(\mathbf{\theta}\), \(\mathbf{c}\) will be referred to as the
nuisance parameters since they are not essential for estimating the ODE
model rather to interpolates the observations. On the otherhand, \(\mathbf{\theta}\) is responsible for
defining the structure of the ODE model and will be denoted as
structural parameters. Often, \(\mathbf{\theta}\) will be the primary
concern given any ODE models. A lesser interest resides in the
parameters \(\mathbf{\sigma}\) of error
distributions given that they influence the fitting criterion for
parameter estimation.
Another objective function \(H(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma}|\mathbf{\lambda})\),
referred to as the outter objective function, is optimized with respect
only to the structural parameters \(\mathbf{\theta}\). It is usually defined to
be the negative log-likelihood function or the sum of squared errors
given the distribution of random errors of the data, that is, \[\begin{equation}
H(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma}|\mathbf{\lambda}) = -\sum_{i}\text{ln
}g(\mathbf{e}_{i}|\mathbf{\sigma}_{i},\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\lambda})
\label{eq:outterobj}
\end{equation}\] where \[\begin{equation*}
\mathbf{e}_{i} = \mathbf{y}_{i} -
\hat{\mathbf{c}}^{\prime}_{i}(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma};\mathbf{\lambda})\mathbf{\phi}(\mathbf{t}_{i})
\end{equation*}\] and \(\hat{\mathbf{c}}^{\prime}_{i}(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma};\mathbf{\lambda})\)
is the optimizer of \(J(\mathbf{c}|\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma}_{i},\mathbf{\lambda})\)
given current \(\mathbf{\theta}\) and
\(\lambda_{i}\). \(H(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma}|\mathbf{\lambda})\)
does not need to have a regularization term given that basis
coefficients \(\mathbf{c}_{i}\) have
already been regularized. The profiling estimation procedure entails two
nested optimizations that are controled by the smoothing parameters
\(\mathbf{\lambda}\), where the inner
optimization depends on the \(\mathbf{\lambda}\) through the outter one.
As a result, fitting the data is not marginalized from estimating
structural prameters. The stream of dependencies defined a parameter
cascade which offers great accuracy and efficiency in estimating ODE
models. To take full advatanges of the parameter cascade method,
pCODE package provides functions that are
able to apply the forementioned methodology for estimating ODE
models.
Package functions
Parameter estimation: pcode
The main function to perform parameter cascade method is
pcode in the package. This is a generic wrapper for
handling different scenarios in terms of objective functions, likelihood
or sum of squared errors. First, we can focus on the situation where
\(e_{ij}\sim\text{N}(0,\sigma^{2}_{i})\). In
fact, both inner and outter objective function are calculated based on a
vector of residuals. The first part of inner objective is easily
recognized as the residual from fitting the observation with basis
funtions under the non-linear least square (NLS) problem. If the second
part, the integral, is approximated by the composite Simpson’s rule,
then the approximation can be written in a quadratic form and as the
inner product between a vector of residual-like quantities to itself.
Stringing the mentioned two vectors together, and the concatenation of
them from all dimensions will produce a vector of residuals. Hence, the
optimization of inner objective function adheres the NLS framework for a
given \(\mathbf{\theta}\). As a result,
the popular Levenberg-Marquart algorithm is used to obtain an esimate
\(\hat{\mathbf{c}}^{\prime}_{i}(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma};\mathbf{\lambda})\),
and pcode employes the funtion lsqnonlin from
PRACMA. The optimization of outter objective function
appears to be exactly a NLS problem. However, the profiled estiamtion
strategy appends an extra layer of optimization to each update of outter
estimation which characterizes a nested optimization problem. It is
applicable to apply Levenberg-Marquart algorithm again to the outter
objective, however the computational effort is much greater than that of
inner optimization.
Tuning \(\lambda\):
tunelambda
The penalty parameter \(\mathbf{\lambda}\) can be manually adjusted
for the optimization procedure with function , or it can be determined
from a grid search based on a k-fold cross validatoin(CV) criterion. We
define the CV score of any set of \(\mathbf{\lambda}\) to be \[
\text{CV}(\mathbf{\lambda}) = \sum_{i=1}^{D}\sum_{j=1}^{v} (
y_{i}(t^{\ast}_{j}) - \hat{x}_{i}(t^{\ast}_{j}))^{2}
\] where \(v\) indicates to the
total number of points kept from estimation and \(t^{\ast}_{j}\), for \(j = 1,..., v\), corresponds to those
points. The \(t^{\ast}_{j}\)’s are set
to be the same across each dimension \(d\) of the ODE model. The points kept away
from estimation are defined by the number of folds and the portion of
points in each fold. That is, a certain portion of points are kept
within each fold of the entire vector of observation points.
Variance estimation of \(\mathbf{\theta}\): bootsvar
and deltavar
All the functions of this packages are derivative-free, hence the
variance of structural parameters is numerically approximated. The first
option is to use the bootstrap variance estimator. Given the estimation
of both parameters \(\mathbf{\theta}\)
and \(\mathbf{c}\), we are able to
solve the ODE directly with estimated initial value \(\hat{\mathbf{x}}(t_{0})\). Hence, bootstrap
samples of the ODE model can be simulated based on the estimated
distribution of errors \(\mathbf{e}_{i}\) for each dimension.
As an alternative to the boostrap variance estimator, the package also
offers another numeric estimator for the variance of structural
parameters. has developed the approximation to
\(Var(\mathbf{\hat{\theta}}(\mathbf{y}))\)
via the delta-method. The resulting approximation is of the form
\[\begin{equation*}
Var(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}(\mathbf{y})) \approx \bigg[
\frac{d\mathbf{\hat{\theta}}}{d\mathbf{y}} \bigg]
\mathbf{\Sigma} \bigg[ \frac{d\mathbf{\hat{\theta}}}{d\mathbf{y}}
\bigg]^{\prime}
\end{equation*}\] where
\(\frac{d\mathbf{\hat{\theta}}}{d\mathbf{y}}\)
is obtained as
\[\begin{equation}
\label{eq:dtheta_dy}
\frac{d\mathbf{\hat{\theta}}}{d\mathbf{y}} = -
\bigg[\frac{\partial^{2}H}{\partial\mathbf{\theta}^2}\bigg\vert_{\mathbf{\hat{\theta}}(\mathbf{y})}
\bigg]^{-1}
\bigg[ \frac{\partial^{2}H}{\partial\mathbf{\theta}\partial\mathbf{y}}\bigg\vert_{\mathbf{\hat{\theta}}(\mathbf{y})}
\bigg]
\end{equation}\] and
\(\mathbf{\Sigma}\) is a
\(N*N\) matrix where the diagonal elements
correspond to the variances for each observation.
\(N\) is the total number of observation
summing over all dimensions of
\(\mathbf{y}\) . Then the estimation of
variance relies on the computation of (
\(\ref{eq:dtheta_dy}\)). The partial
derivatives are approximated by the finite difference method, i.e.,
\[\begin{equation*}
\bigg[\frac{\partial^{2}H}{\partial\mathbf{\theta}_{u}^2}\bigg\vert_{\mathbf{\hat{\theta}}(\mathbf{y})}
\bigg] \approx
\frac{H(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}_{u+}(\mathbf{y})|\mathbf{\lambda}) -
2H(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}(\mathbf{y})|\mathbf{\lambda}) +
H(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}_{u-}(\mathbf{y})|\mathbf{\lambda})}{\Delta^{2}}
\end{equation*}\] where
\(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}_{u+}(\mathbf{y})\)
and
\(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}_{u-}(\mathbf{y})\)
indicate the addition and subtraction of stepsize
\(\Delta\) to the u-th structural parameter
estimate
\(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}(\mathbf{y})\). The
mixed partial derivatives are approximated as the following
\[\begin{equation*}
\bigg[\frac{\partial^{2}H}{\partial\mathbf{\theta}_{u}\partial\mathbf{\theta}_{v}}\bigg\vert_{\mathbf{\hat{\theta}}(\mathbf{y})}
\bigg] \approx \frac{H(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}_{u+,v+}(\mathbf{y})) -
H(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}_{u-,v+}(\mathbf{y})) -
H(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}_{u+,v-}(\mathbf{y}))
+H(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}_{u-,v-}(\mathbf{y}))}{4\Delta^{2}}
\end{equation*}\] Given any fixed arugument
\(\mathbf{\theta}\) for the outter objective
function
\(H(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma}|\mathbf{\lambda})\),
its evaluation involves the profiled estimation of
\(\mathbf{c}(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma};|\mathbf{\lambda})\)
and returns solely the likelihood or the sum of squared errors. Hence,
individual evaluations of
\(H(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma}|\mathbf{\lambda})\)
used in numeric approximation is obtained in the following steps:
Approximation to the second term \(\frac{\partial^{2}H}{\partial\mathbf{\theta}\partial\mathbf{y}}\bigg\vert_{\mathbf{\hat{\theta}}(\mathbf{y})}\)
utilizes the finite difference method as well. After evaluating \(H(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma}|\mathbf{\lambda})\)
given \(\mathbf{\theta}\), the mixed
partial derivative is calculated by moving the particular observation up
or down by some stepsize \(\Delta_{y}\). That is, \[\begin{equation*}
\bigg[\frac{\partial^{2}H}{\partial\mathbf{\theta}_{u}\partial
y_{v}}\bigg\vert_{\mathbf{\hat{\theta}}(\mathbf{y})} \bigg] \approx
\frac{H(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}_{u+},\mathbf{y}_{v+}) -
H(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}_{u+},\mathbf{y}_{v-}) -
H(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}_{u-},\mathbf{y}_{v+})
+H(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}_{u-},\mathbf{y}_{v-})}{4\Delta\Delta_{y}}
\end{equation*}\] where \(\mathbf{y}_{v+}\) and \(\mathbf{y}_{v-}\) represent moving up and
down v-th observation by stepsize \(\Delta_{y}\) in the last step of evaluating
\(H(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\sigma}|\mathbf{\lambda})\).
A simple example
A simple illustration uses an one-dimensional ODE model \[
\dot{X} = \theta X (1-\frac{X}{10})
\] The following code defines the forementioned model that will
be provided for pcode for estimating parameters and
ode for obtaining numeric solution:
#load dependencies
library(pCODE)
library(deSolve)
library(fda)
library(MASS)
library(pracma)
library(Hmisc)
#set seed for reproducibility
set.seed(123)
ode.model <- function(t,state,parameters){
with(as.list(c(state,parameters)),{
dX <- theta*X*(1-X/10)
return(list(dX))})}
Let \(\theta = 0.1\) and \(X(0) = 0.1\)
#define model parameters
model.par <- c(theta = c(0.1))
#define state initial value
state <- c(X = 0.1)
Given an observation period of \([0,100]\), random noise errors are added to
the ODE solution with a Normal distribution \(\text{N}(0,0.5^{2})\). Observations are
generated as follows:
times <- seq(0,100,length.out=101)
mod <- ode(y=state,times=times,func=ode.model,parms = model.par)
nobs <- length(times)
scale <- 0.5
noise <- scale * rnorm(n = nobs, mean = 0 , sd = 1)
observ <- mod[,2] + noise
Subsequently, we can visualize the observations along the true
solution of this simple ODE model as
#plot simulated data against generating model
plot(mod,ylab=names(state)) #curve
points(times, observ,pch='*',col='blue') #observation
First, a basis object needs to be defined by
create.bspline.basis from fda package for
smoothing observations. A B-spline basis is created given 21 konts
including both interior and boundary knots acorss observation interval
\((0,100)\). The order of basis
functions is 4, so there is a total of 23 basis functions.
#Generate basis object for interpolation and as argument of pcode
#21 konts equally spaced within [0,100]
knots <- seq(0,100,length.out=21)
#order of basis functions
norder <- 4
#number of basis funtions
nbasis <- length(knots) + norder - 2
#creating Bspline basis
basis <- create.bspline.basis(c(0,100),nbasis,norder,breaks = knots)
To perform parameter cascade method for estimating both structural
and nuisance parameters, one can use pcode in the following
way
#parameter estimation
pcode.result <- pcode(data = observ, time = times, ode.model = ode.model,
par.initial = 0.3, par.names = 'theta',state.names = 'X',
basis.list = basis, lambda = 1e2)
The structural parameter and nuisance parameter estiamtes can be
called by
pcode.result$structural.par
#> theta
#> 0.09995229
pcode.result$nuisance.par
#> [1] 0.1232160 0.1550332 0.1903906 0.2729993 0.4284428 0.6134020
#> [7] 1.0222183 1.6891098 2.5351231 3.5543293 4.8116926 6.0699739
#> [13] 7.2145361 8.0734588 8.7456720 9.2110485 9.4866269 9.7101657
#> [19] 9.8736650 9.9650449 10.0098433 9.9950749 9.9846698
The true variance for data generating parameter \(\theta\) is \(1.003\mathrm{e}{-5}\), and we can then
compare the performance deltavar for estimating \(\text{var}(\theta)\).
deltavar(data = observ, time = times, ode.model = ode.model,
par.initial = 0.3, par.names = 'theta',state.names = 'X',
basis.list = basis, lambda = 1e2,
stepsize = 1e-5,y_stepsize = 1e-5)
#> [1] 9.923318e-06
The variance estimator give sexcellent estimates of the true variance
of structural parameter. tunelambda returns a matrix of
cross-validation scores for each replication given a certain \(\lambda\). Based on the replicates, score
averages and standard deviations can be calculated for comparison
betweens candidates of \(\lambda\):
#Tune lambda based on k-fold cross-validation
cv.result <- tunelambda(data = observ, time = times, ode.model = ode.model,
par.initial = 0.3, par.names = 'theta',state.names = 'X',
basis.list = basis, lambda_grid = 10^(-3:10),cv_portion = .01,
rep = 20, kfolds = 5)
cv.means <- apply(cv.result$cv.score, 1, mean)
cv.sd <- apply(cv.result$cv.score, 1, sd)/sqrt(20)
plot(-2:10, cv.means[2:14], type = "l", lwd = 2, col = gray(0.4),ylim= c(-0,50),ylab='',xlab='')
errbar(-2:10, cv.means[2:14], cv.means[2:14] + cv.sd[2:14], cv.means[2:14] - cv.sd[2:14], add = TRUE, col = "steelblue2", pch = 19,
lwd = 0.5)
plot(1:10, cv.means[5:14], type = "l", lwd = 2, col = gray(0.4),ylim= c(-0,5),ylab='',xlab='')
errbar(1:10, cv.means[5:14], cv.means[5:14] + cv.sd[5:14], cv.means[5:14] - cv.sd[5:14], add = TRUE, col = "steelblue2", pch = 19,
lwd = 0.5)
The search grid for \(\lambda\) is
\(10^{-2:10}\) in this case. The CV
scores, as illustrated in \(\ref{fig:simpleode_cv_full}\), indicate
that any \(\lambda\) less than \(1\) are not optimal for the model Instead,
we can focus on a subset of candidates for which the CV scores are
considered to be reasonably acceptable. Based on the cross-validation
plot, \(\lambda = 10\) seems to be the
most optimal.
These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.