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rolling_origin_pals(): a genuine out-of-sample
(rolling-origin) evaluation, re-estimating the model at each of a set of
origin dates from strictly earlier events and scoring predictions on the
following holdout window. Complements the one-step-ahead (“marching
forward”) criterion that estimate_pals() minimizes, in
which every event’s own location contributes to the single fitted
parameter vector.bootstrap_pals() gains a block argument
for a block bootstrap (block = "year", or a user-supplied
grouping vector) that preserves within-block temporal/actor dependence,
as an alternative to the default i.i.d. event bootstrap.pool_rubin() quick-start example,
which errored with “unused arguments” when called with
q =/u = (the function’s arguments are named
estimates/variances); updated install
instructions to lead with CRAN and to add
build_vignettes = TRUE to the GitHub install example, so
vignette("palsr") is available after following the
README.pal_events(),
estimate_pals() (one- and four-parameter models),
project_pal() / project_pals(),
predict_event_locations(), and
pal_distance().bootstrap_pals() and
Rubin’s Rules pooling with pool_rubin().nigeria_sim and
simulate_conflict_events().These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.