Low-Decarie E, Boatman TG, Bennett N, Passfield W, Gavalas-Olea A, Siegel P, Geider RJ (2017). “Predictions of response to temperature are contingent on model choice and data quality.” Ecology and Evolution. Abstract:The equations used to account for the temperature dependence of biological processes, including growth and metabolic rates, are the foundations of our predictions of how global biogeochemistry and biogeography change in response to global climate change. We review and test the use of 12 equations used to model the temperature dependence of biological processes across the full range of their temperature response, including supra- and suboptimal temperatures. We focus on fitting these equations to thermal response curves for phytoplankton growth but also tested the equations on a variety of traits across a wide diversity of organisms. We found that many of the surveyed equations have comparable abilities to fit data and equally high requirements for data quality (number of test temperatures and range of response captured) but lead to different estimates of cardinal temperatures and of the biological rates at these temperatures. When these rate estimates are used for biogeographic predictions, differences between the estimates of even the best-fitting models can exceed the global biological change predicted for a decade of global warming. As a result, studies of the biological response to global changes in temperature must make careful consideration of model selection and of the quality of the data used for parametrizing these models., https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ece3.3576.

Corresponding BibTeX entry:

  @Article{,
    title = {Predictions of response to temperature are contingent on
      model choice and data quality},
    author = {Etienne Low-Decarie and Tobias G Boatman and Noah Bennett
      and Will Passfield and Antonio Gavalas-Olea and Philipp Siegel
      and Richard J Geider},
    journal = {Ecology and Evolution},
    year = {2017},
    url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ece3.3576},
    note = {Abstract:The equations used to account for the temperature
      dependence of biological processes, including growth and
      metabolic rates, are the foundations of our predictions of how
      global biogeochemistry and biogeography change in response to
      global climate change. We review and test the use of 12 equations
      used to model the temperature dependence of biological processes
      across the full range of their temperature response, including
      supra- and suboptimal temperatures. We focus on fitting these
      equations to thermal response curves for phytoplankton growth but
      also tested the equations on a variety of traits across a wide
      diversity of organisms. We found that many of the surveyed
      equations have comparable abilities to fit data and equally high
      requirements for data quality (number of test temperatures and
      range of response captured) but lead to different estimates of
      cardinal temperatures and of the biological rates at these
      temperatures. When these rate estimates are used for
      biogeographic predictions, differences between the estimates of
      even the best-fitting models can exceed the global biological
      change predicted for a decade of global warming. As a result,
      studies of the biological response to global changes in
      temperature must make careful consideration of model selection
      and of the quality of the data used for parametrizing these
      models.},
  }