## ----setup, include = FALSE---------------------------------------------------
knitr::opts_chunk$set(collapse = TRUE, comment = "#>", fig.width = 6,
                      fig.height = 4)
library(toeclim)

## ----simulate-----------------------------------------------------------------
d <- toe_simulate(n_years = 150, slope = 0.03, onset = 1970,
                  sigma = 0.3, phi = 0.5, seed = 10)
head(d, 3)

## ----trend--------------------------------------------------------------------
toe_trend(d$member_01, d$year)

## ----emerge-------------------------------------------------------------------
fit <- toe_emerge(d$member_01, d$year, baseline = c(1900, 1950),
                  n_boot = 200, seed = 1)
fit

## ----plot-emerge--------------------------------------------------------------
plot(fit)

## ----prob---------------------------------------------------------------------
toe_prob(fit, times = c(1990, 2000, 2010, 2020))

## ----sens---------------------------------------------------------------------
toe_sensitivity(d$member_01, d$year, baseline = c(1900, 1950),
                k = c(1, 2, 3), persist = c(1, 5, 10))

## ----ensemble-----------------------------------------------------------------
members <- toe_example[, grep("^member", names(toe_example))]
ens <- toe_ensemble(members, toe_example$year, baseline = c(1900, 1960))
ens

## ----plot-ensemble------------------------------------------------------------
plot(ens)

## ----prepare------------------------------------------------------------------
dates <- seq(as.Date("1950-01-01"), as.Date("2019-12-01"), by = "month")
mon <- as.integer(format(dates, "%m"))
yr  <- as.integer(format(dates, "%Y"))
x <- 12 + 8 * sin(2 * pi * mon / 12) + 0.02 * pmax(0, yr - 1980) +
  rnorm(length(dates), sd = 0.8)

anom   <- toe_anomaly(x, dates, baseline = c(1950, 1979), by = "month")
annual <- toe_annual(anom$anomaly, dates)
head(annual, 3)

## ----real-emerge--------------------------------------------------------------
toe_emerge(annual$value, annual$year, baseline = c(1950, 1979))