Getting Started with Varmapack

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Varmapack simulates Gaussian vector autoregressive-moving-average models with exact stationary initialization. The first returned values therefore have the model-implied distribution without discarding a burn-in segment.

Quick start

library(varmapack)
library(randompack)

Create a model from coefficient matrices and its innovation covariance. A single lag may be supplied as a matrix; multiple lags use an r by r by lag array.

A <- matrix(c(0.5, 0.1,
              0.0, 0.3), 2, 2)
B <- matrix(c(0.2, 0.0,
              0.1, 0.1), 2, 2)
model <- varmapack_model(A = A, B = B, Sig = diag(2))

rng <- randompack_rng()
rng$seed(123)
X <- model$sim(100, nrep = 3, rng = rng)
dim(X)
#> [1]   2 100   3

The first dimension is the series dimension, the second is time, and the third selects the replicate. Requesting shocks returns a named list.

out <- model$sim(20, nrep = 2, rng = rng, return_shocks = TRUE)
names(out)
#> [1] "X" "E"
dim(out$E)
#> [1]  2 20  2

Built-in testcases return model objects.

varmapack_testcases()
#>    index        name p q r
#> 1      1      tinyAR 1 0 1
#> 2      2      tinyMA 0 1 1
#> 3      3    tinyARMA 1 1 1
#> 4      4    smallAR1 1 0 2
#> 5      5    smallAR2 2 0 2
#> 6      6    smallMA1 0 1 2
#> 7      7    smallMA2 0 2 2
#> 8      8  smallARMA1 1 1 2
#> 9      9  smallARMA2 1 2 2
#> 10    10    mediumAR 1 0 3
#> 11    11   mediumMA1 0 1 3
#> 12    12 mediumARMA1 3 3 3
#> 13    13 mediumARMA2 3 3 3
#> 14    14   mediumMA2 0 2 3
#> 15    15     largeAR 5 0 7
#> 16    16   largeARMA 3 3 7
test_model <- varmapack_testcase("smallARMA1")
test_model$specrad()
#> [1] 0.4561553

Model methods provide theoretical autocovariances, impulse responses, and the AR and MA spectral radii.

Gamma <- model$acvf(10)
Psi <- model$psi(10)
Theta <- model$irf(10)
model$specrad()
#> [1] 0.5
model$ma_specrad()
#> [1] 0.2

The varmapack_autocov() function computes sample autocovariances for an observed time-series matrix with variables in rows.

varmapack_autocov(X[, , 1], maxlag = 5)
#> , , 1
#> 
#>           [,1]      [,2]
#> [1,] 1.9132623 0.1434708
#> [2,] 0.1434708 1.2919753
#> 
#> , , 2
#> 
#>            [,1]      [,2]
#> [1,] 1.21377633 0.1515631
#> [2,] 0.07749958 0.4225508
#> 
#> , , 3
#> 
#>            [,1]       [,2]
#> [1,] 0.47340727 0.04288008
#> [2,] 0.01557136 0.03237842
#> 
#> , , 4
#> 
#>            [,1]        [,2]
#> [1,] 0.03137436 -0.07033934
#> [2,] 0.06512048 -0.04655784
#> 
#> , , 5
#> 
#>             [,1]       [,2]
#> [1,] -0.18629507 -0.1520553
#> [2,] -0.04585966 -0.1965071
#> 
#> , , 6
#> 
#>            [,1]        [,2]
#> [1,] -0.1454214 -0.07693178
#> [2,] -0.3255877 -0.11697233

VARMAX models use exogenous coefficient matrices C and input values z. They require fixed starting values X0.

C <- array(c(0.3, -0.2), c(2, 1, 1))
varmax <- varmapack_model(A = A, B = B, C = C, Sig = diag(2))
X0 <- matrix(0, 2, 2)
z <- matrix(sin(seq_len(100)/10), 1, 100)
Xmax <- varmax$sim(100, X0 = X0, z = z, rng = rng)

These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.