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ErrorTracer: Bayesian Error Propagation and Forecast Uncertainty Decomposition

Provides a full pipeline from regularized or standard regression models (elastic net, linear models, generalized linear models, random forests) to informed Bayesian priors, three-way forecast uncertainty decomposition (parameter / environmental / residual), and forecast shelf life analysis (the quantification of when a forecast becomes uninformative). Designed for ecological and genomic forecasting with climate or environmental covariates. Methods build on Bürkner (2017) <doi:10.18637/jss.v080.i01> for Bayesian regression via 'Stan', Friedman, Hastie, and Tibshirani (2010) <doi:10.18637/jss.v033.i01> for elastic net regularization, Wright and Ziegler (2017) <doi:10.18637/jss.v077.i01> for random forests, and Vehtari, Gelman, and Gabry (2017) <doi:10.1007/s11222-016-9696-4> for leave-one-out cross-validation.

Version: 1.0.2
Depends: R (≥ 4.1.0)
Imports: brms (≥ 2.20.0), ggplot2 (≥ 3.4.0), rlang (≥ 1.1.0), stats, utils
Suggests: loo (≥ 2.6.0), bayesplot (≥ 1.10.0), scales (≥ 1.3.0), tidyr (≥ 1.3.0), glmnet (≥ 4.1.0), ranger (≥ 0.15.0), dplyr (≥ 1.1.0), testthat (≥ 3.0.0), knitr, rmarkdown, covr
Published: 2026-05-04
DOI: 10.32614/CRAN.package.ErrorTracer (may not be active yet)
Author: Luis Javier Madrigal-Roca [aut, cre], John Kelly [aut]
Maintainer: Luis Javier Madrigal-Roca <madrigalrocalj at yahoo.com>
License: MIT + file LICENSE
NeedsCompilation: no
Materials: README, NEWS
CRAN checks: ErrorTracer results

Documentation:

Reference manual: ErrorTracer.html , ErrorTracer.pdf
Vignettes: Getting Started with ErrorTracer (source, R code)

Downloads:

Package source: ErrorTracer_1.0.2.tar.gz
Windows binaries: r-devel: ErrorTracer_1.0.2.zip, r-release: not available, r-oldrel: ErrorTracer_1.0.2.zip
macOS binaries: r-release (arm64): ErrorTracer_1.0.2.tgz, r-oldrel (arm64): ErrorTracer_1.0.2.tgz, r-release (x86_64): ErrorTracer_1.0.2.tgz, r-oldrel (x86_64): ErrorTracer_1.0.2.tgz

Linking:

Please use the canonical form https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ErrorTracer to link to this page.

These binaries (installable software) and packages are in development.
They may not be fully stable and should be used with caution. We make no claims about them.